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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.6% pass rate.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the model to call 66.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.

The 4th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Chiefs this year (a whopping 61.0 per game on average).

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Justin Watson's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 52.7% to 81.4%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

Justin Watson's 18.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 34.7.

The Broncos safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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