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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Completion% in football (68.1%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (68.1%).

The Chicago Bears linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a huge 12.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.

Justin Watson has been has not been looked to very often his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of just 6.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 24th percentile among wide receivers.

Justin Watson has been among the worst pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a measly 1.0 receptions per game while checking in at the 9th percentile among wideouts.

Justin Watson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, completing a mere 48.5% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 17th percentile among WRs

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