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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 20

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their opportunities: the highest frequency on the slate this week.

Justin Watson's 32.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 18.0.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Justin Watson's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 46.8% to 54.5%.

This year, the porous Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered a staggering 70.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the biggest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.8 per game) this year.

The Bills cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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