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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -186 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Justin Watson's 34.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 18.0.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year.

Justin Watson's receiving talent has improved this season, notching 2.0 adjusted receptions vs a mere 0.9 last season.

Justin Watson's 54.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a noteable boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 46.8% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Chiefs are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

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