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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week.

Justin Watson's 33.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 18.0.

As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

Justin Watson's 51.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks an impressive growth in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 46.8% mark.

This year, the poor Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded a colossal 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the biggest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being called for in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.

More Justin Watson Player Props

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