Justin Watson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+122/-159).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -156 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -159.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions cornerbacks project as the worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Justin Watson has been has not been looked to very often his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of just 5.4% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 23rd percentile among wideouts.
Justin Watson has been among the bottom pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.9 receptions per game while grading out in the 8th percentile among WRs.
Justin Watson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 46.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 15th percentile among wideouts
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.