Justin Watson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Justin Watson has been not been very involved his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of just 5.0% this year, which ranks him in the 24th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Watson has been among the bottom pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging just 1.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 13th percentile among wideouts.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.