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Justin Watson
NFL · Player Props
Justin Watson
WR · Kansas City Chiefs
Receptions
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022 Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC
NFL Props Justin Watson Receptions

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +185 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +150.

Favors Over
  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Justin Watson to be much more involved in his team's passing attack this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.2% in games he has played).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Completion% in football (69.5%) to wide receivers this year (69.5%).
Favors Under
  • The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
  • Justin Watson has been among the worst wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a measly 0.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 7th percentile among wideouts.
  • Justin Watson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, completing just 51.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 20th percentile among wide receivers
  • The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
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