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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +185 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Watson to be much more involved in his team's passing attack this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.2% in games he has played).

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Completion% in football (69.5%) to wide receivers this year (69.5%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.

Justin Watson has been among the worst wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a measly 0.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 7th percentile among wideouts.

Justin Watson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, completing just 51.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 20th percentile among wide receivers

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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