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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (64.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Justin Watson grades out as one of the most effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging an outstanding 9.21 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 77th percentile when it comes to WRs.

When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Las Vegas's collection of safeties has been terrible this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 9-point advantage, the Chiefs are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.

At the moment, the 7th-most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Chiefs.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Raiders, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.0 per game) this year.

Justin Watson has put up far fewer air yards this season (16.0 per game) than he did last season (65.0 per game).

Justin Watson's 14.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 34.7.

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