Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2024

Updated Oct 21, 2024 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.7% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Justin Watson rates as one of the most effective receivers in football, averaging a stellar 9.23 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 77th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The 49ers pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Justin Watson has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (18.0 per game) than he did last season (65.0 per game).
Justin Watson's 16.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 34.7.
With a bad 55.8% Adjusted Completion% (8th percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Watson has been as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers.
With a feeble 1.67 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (3rd percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Watson places among the best WRs in the league in the league in the open field.