My Account Log Out

reorder

Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Justin Watson has accounted for a whopping 27.1% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 84th percentile when it comes to WRs.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this game.

Justin Watson is positioned as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football, catching a mere 53.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 5th percentile among wideouts

Justin Watson checks in as one of the bottom wideouts in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 1.82 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 10th percentile.

The Falcons defense has given up the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 117.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Falcons pass defense has allowed the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing WRs: a measly 3.7 YAC.

More Justin Watson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™