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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 22

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-310).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -310.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league (68.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.

The model projects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Justin Watson's 70.8% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a remarkable gain in his receiving proficiency over last year's 52.7% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Eagles, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 26.4 per game) this year.

After accruing 61.0 air yards per game last year, Justin Watson has produced significantly less this year, currently boasting 25.0 per game.

Justin Watson's 15.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 33.4.

Justin Watson has posted significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (31.0).

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 105.0) vs. WRs this year.

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