Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-370).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -370.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their downs: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
Justin Watson has received a monstrous 27.5% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 84th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the poor Bengals defense has allowed a whopping 170.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 3rd-worst in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 10.13 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 4-point favorite in this game.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to call only 62.6 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
With a poor 53.6% Adjusted Catch% (4th percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Watson rates among the worst possession receivers in the league among wide receivers.
With a lackluster 1.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (8th percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Watson has been among the best wide receivers in the league in the NFL in space.
The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.