My Account Log Out

reorder

Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.4 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.

When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Justin Watson has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (26.0 per game) than he did last year (65.0 per game).

Justin Watson's 16.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 34.7.

Justin Watson has put up quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (31.0).

This year, the strong Houston Texans defense has yielded a puny 58.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 2nd-smallest rate in football.

More Justin Watson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™