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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-118/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (66.6% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Chiefs.

The Chiefs have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 60.6 plays per game.

In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in the league this year.

Justin Watson's 75.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys an impressive boost in his receiving prowess over last season's 52.7% rate.

With a stellar 9.8 adjusted yards per target (82nd percentile) this year, Justin Watson rates among the top WRs in the NFL in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4 points.

Justin Watson has notched far fewer air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (65.0 per game).

Justin Watson's 18.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 34.7.

This year, the tough Chargers pass defense has given up the 9th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a feeble 3.9 YAC.

The Chargers linebackers project as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

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