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Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 66.1% pass rate.The Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.4 plays per game.The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Chiefs grades out as the best in the NFL this year.Justin Watson's 81.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a meaningful improvement in his pass-catching skills over last year's 52.7% figure.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 13.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 125.6 total plays run: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.After accruing 65.0 air yards per game last season, Justin Watson has regressed heavily this season, currently sitting at 22.0 per game.Justin Watson's 17.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 34.7.The Raiders defense has conceded the 7th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 132.0) to WRs this year.
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