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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-119/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -119.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.6% pass rate.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the model to call 66.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.

The 4th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Chiefs this year (a whopping 61.0 per game on average).

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Justin Watson's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 52.7% to 81.4%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

Justin Watson has posted far fewer air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (65.0 per game).

Justin Watson's 18.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 34.7.

The Broncos defense has surrendered the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 136.0) versus wideouts this year.

The Broncos pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 2.96 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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