Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Watson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 68.4% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
After averaging 38.0 air yards per game last year, Justin Watson has undergone big improvement this year, currently averaging 67.0 per game.
Justin Watson's 30.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 18.0.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.69 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in the league.
The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the best safety corps in the league this year in defending receivers.

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