Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Justin Watson ranks in the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs this year with a staggering 31.5% of his team's air yards accumulated.
Justin Watson's 38.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 18.0.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Justin Watson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 46.8% to 56.6%.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets defense has given up the fewest receiving yards per game in the league (just 111.0) versus wideouts since the start of last season.
The Jets pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 6.84 yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New York's CB corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the NFL.