Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Justin Watson has been among the most effective pass-catchers in football, averaging an impressive 9.33 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has shown bad efficiency against WRs since the start of last season, surrendering 9.92 yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 12.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
Justin Watson has been has not been looked to very often his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of just 6.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 24th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Watson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, completing a mere 48.5% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 17th percentile among WRs