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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 68.5% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.

Justin Watson's 54.8% Route Participation Rate this season shows a remarkable growth in his passing attack workload over last season's 40.6% mark.

After averaging 38.0 air yards per game last season, Justin Watson has gotten better this season, currently pacing 55.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a feeble 2.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (25th percentile) this year, Justin Watson places among the top WRs in the league in football in space.

This year, the fierce San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed a puny 129.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 10th-best in the NFL.

This year, the fierce 49ers defense has yielded the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wideouts: a paltry 7.5 yards.

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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