Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Justin Watson has been among the most effective receivers in the NFL, averaging a terrific 9.09 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 76th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Justin Watson has been been lightly used his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of just 5.7% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 22nd percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Watson has been among the bottom pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 18.0 yards per game while checking in at the 23rd percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Watson has been among the worst possession receivers in football, completing just 47.1% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 17th percentile among wide receivers
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.