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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week.

Justin Watson has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (38.0 per game).

Justin Watson's 33.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 18.0.

As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

Justin Watson's 32.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season illustrates a material boost in his receiving skills over last season's 17.0 mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being called for in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.

Justin Watson has been one of the bottom wideouts in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.

More Justin Watson Player Props

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