Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Justin Watson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
After accruing 38.0 air yards per game last year, Justin Watson has produced significantly more this year, currently boasting 73.0 per game.
Justin Watson's 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 18.0.
Justin Watson's 34.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving talent over last season's 17.0 mark.
Justin Watson's 53.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a noteworthy improvement in his receiving prowess over last year's 46.8% rate.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.
At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.4 per game) this year.
The Packers cornerbacks project as the 9th-best group of CBs in football this year in defending receivers.

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