Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Watson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Justin Watson has put up quite a few more air yards this season (69.0 per game) than he did last season (38.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Justin Watson has been more heavily incorporated in his offense's air attack.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
This year, the tough Eagles pass defense has conceded the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a meager 2.9 YAC.

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