Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in football (170.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Justin Watson has been has not been looked to very often his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of just 5.4% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 23rd percentile among wideouts.
Justin Watson has been among the weakest wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging just 17.0 yards per game while checking in at the 20th percentile among WRs.
Justin Watson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 46.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 15th percentile among wideouts
Justin Watson has been among the bottom wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 1.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 25th percentile.