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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up the most receiving yards per game in the league (171.0) to wideouts this year.

The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (67.9%) to wideouts since the start of last season (67.9%).

The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has afforded their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Justin Watson has run a route on 18.4% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 20th percentile among wideouts.

The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wideouts since the start of last season, conceding 7.73 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the league.

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