Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 21, 2023 9:16 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.5%) versus wideouts this year (63.5%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, conceding 7.77 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.