Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Justin Watson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 3:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-136/+103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ +103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has yielded the 7th-most receiving yards per game in football (167.0) to wideouts this year.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.5%) to wideouts this year (69.5%).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Justin Watson has been has not been looked to very often his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of just 5.3% this year, which puts him in the 23rd percentile among WRs.
Justin Watson has been among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 16.0 yards per game while checking in at the 15th percentile among wideouts.
Justin Watson has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 47.4% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 16th percentile among WRs
Justin Watson has been among the weakest WRs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging just 2.07 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.

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