Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+108/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -126 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
Justin Watson has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging an impressive 10.69 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has afforded their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Justin Watson has been not been very involved his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of just 5.0% this year, which ranks in the 22nd percentile among wideouts.
Justin Watson has been among the bottom WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 19.0 yards per game while checking in at the 24th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Watson has been among the weakest wide receivers in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 24th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has given up the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 128.0) to WRs this year.