Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Justin Watson has been among the most efficient receivers in the league, averaging an impressive 10.54 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 88th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

Justin Watson has been not been very involved his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of just 5.0% this year, which ranks him in the 24th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Watson has been among the bottom wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a lowly 19.0 yards per game while grading out in the 23rd percentile among WRs.
Justin Watson has been among the weakest wide receivers in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.00 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.