Justin Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Justin Watson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 72.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Watson to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack this week (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.9% in games he has played).
Justin Watson has been among the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a stellar 10.22 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.5%) vs. wideouts this year (69.5%).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Justin Watson has been among the weakest WRs in the league this year, averaging a lowly 18.0 yards per game while grading out in the 25th percentile among WRs.
Justin Watson has been among the bottom wide receivers in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 25th percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. wideouts this year, allowing 7.58 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the league.

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