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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Watson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+376/-766).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -684 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -766.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has afforded their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 6th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Justin Watson has been not been very involved his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 2.1% this year, which ranks him in the 20th percentile among wide receivers.

The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.50 per game this year.

The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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