Justin Watson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+395/-833).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -758 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -833.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Watson to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the end zone this week (9.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 3rd-least passing touchdowns in the league to WRs: 0.55 per game this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.