Justin Watson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+404/-867).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +411 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +404.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Watson to be a more important option in his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (10.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (2.6% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.5%) vs. wideouts this year (69.5%).
The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 6th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL to WRs: 1.00 per game this year.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.