Justin Watson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Justin Watson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+418/-924).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +420 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +418.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded the 5th-most passing touchdowns in football to wideouts: 1.22 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties project as the 9th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has afforded their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Justin Watson has been not been very involved his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 2.9% this year, which ranks in the 24th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Watson's 13.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the worst in the NFL: 25th percentile for wide receivers.
Justin Watson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league, catching just 47.4% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 18th percentile among wide receivers
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (63.1%) to wideouts this year (63.1%).

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