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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Rams vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-195/+145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (63.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Vikings.

The model projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 131.0 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The model projects Justin Jefferson to earn 10.5 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Justin Jefferson has been a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack this season (34.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (28.0%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.

The Minnesota Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.0 plays per game.

Justin Jefferson's 5.4 adjusted catches per game this season represents a noteable regression in his receiving ability over last season's 6.6 mark.

Justin Jefferson's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 67.7% to 62.5%.

The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (56%) to wideouts this year (56.0%).

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