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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-145/+115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 130.4 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Lions defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (42.2 per game) this year.

The predictive model expects Justin Jefferson to accrue 11.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 52.6 per game on average).

Justin Jefferson's 5.1 adjusted catches per game this year reflects an impressive regression in his receiving prowess over last year's 6.6 rate.

Justin Jefferson's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 67.7% to 58.0%.

This year, the strong Lions defense has yielded a paltry 61.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 9th-smallest rate in the NFL.

The Lions safeties profile as the best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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