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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-145/+110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.0% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

With respect to a defense's influence on pace, at 28.14 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Vikings to be the 8th-quickest in football (context-neutralized) at the present time.

The model projects Justin Jefferson to notch 9.5 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.

Justin Jefferson's 78.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 70.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.8 per game) this year.

Justin Jefferson's 4.9 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a significant reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 6.6 rate.

Since the start of last season, the fierce New York Jets defense has surrendered a measly 63.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.

The Jets linebackers profile as the best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

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