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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

In this week's game, Justin Jefferson is projected by the model to rank in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.7 targets.

Justin Jefferson ranks in the 97th percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 72.9 figure since the start of last season.

With an exceptional 6.1 adjusted receptions per game (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Jefferson has been as one of the top wide receivers in the league in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings since the start of last season (just 56.4 per game on average).

The Vikings have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Justin Jefferson's 61.8% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a noteworthy drop-off in his receiving ability over last year's 67.7% rate.

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