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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-185/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

With an impressive 99.5% Route Participation Rate (100th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in the league.

The projections expect Justin Jefferson to total 9.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.

With an exceptional 5.7 adjusted catches per game (91st percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson places as one of the leading wide receivers in the game in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Vikings, who are heavily favored by 7 points.

The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Vikings have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 32.8 per game) this year.

The Chicago Bears safeties project as the 5th-best unit in football this year in defending receivers.

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