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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The model projects Justin Jefferson to earn 10.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.

Justin Jefferson has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 30.6% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.

The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 63.0 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The Minnesota Vikings have called the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 56.5 plays per game.

Justin Jefferson's 5.6 adjusted receptions per game this season represents a noteable reduction in his receiving talent over last season's 6.6 rate.

The Cardinals safeties grade out as the 8th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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