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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (62.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Minnesota Vikings.

In this week's contest, Justin Jefferson is predicted by the projection model to find himself in the 97th percentile among WRs with 9.8 targets.

Justin Jefferson's 78.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 70.9.

Justin Jefferson profiles as one of the leading WRs in the game this year, averaging an excellent 5.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 56.1 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.9 per game) this year.

This year, the imposing Bears defense has allowed a feeble 61.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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