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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-164/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +128 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (62.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.

In this contest, Justin Jefferson is anticipated by our trusted projection set to finish in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.3 targets.

Justin Jefferson's 79.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 70.9.

With an outstanding 5.9 adjusted catches per game (95th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson ranks among the top wide receivers in the game in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 6 points.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see just 125.3 plays on offense called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings this year (just 55.4 per game on average).

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 28.2 per game) this year.

The Titans safeties project as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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