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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.9% pass rate.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

The model projects Justin Jefferson to garner 9.6 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Justin Jefferson has been a more important option in his offense's passing offense this season (33.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (28.0%).

Justin Jefferson ranks as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 6.0 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Vikings are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Vikings are anticipated by the model to run just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.

The 2nd-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (just 52.8 per game on average).

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally cause lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.

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