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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Minnesota Vikings may rely on the pass game less in this week's game (and call more carries) since they be forced to start backup QB Jaren Hall.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 61.8% of their plays: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.

This week, Justin Jefferson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 10.9 targets.

Justin Jefferson slots into the 96th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a monstrous 70.6 mark this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.

Justin Jefferson's 6.2 adjusted receptions per game this season shows a noteable drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season's 7.5 mark.

Justin Jefferson's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 72.0% to 66.5%.

More Justin Jefferson Player Props

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