Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-150/+118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Vikings offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.89 seconds per play.
In this week's game, Justin Jefferson is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.5 targets.
With an elite 27.1% Target% (94th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson stands among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

Favors Under

Justin Jefferson's receiving skills have declined this season, averaging a mere 6.2 adjusted catches vs 7.5 last season.
Justin Jefferson's 67.8% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a meaningful decline in his receiving talent over last season's 72.0% mark.

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