Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to total 11.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson's 67.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.