Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-150/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to garner 10.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
Justin Jefferson's pass-catching performance improved this season, totaling 8.0 yards per game vs a mere 6.3 last season.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson's 73.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. wideouts this year (62.7%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.