Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+119/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to garner 10.3 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 6.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.
Justin Jefferson has been a less important option in his team's air attack this season (25.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (32.0%).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.